The Credit Crunch Diaries.Informed comment from John Smith updated daily as the biggest financial crisis of modern times grips the world. This diary reflects the author’s personal view and interpretation of events, no offence to any party is intended or inferred.

Thursday, 31 December 2009

The John Smith 2009 top-ten awards

The John Smith 2009 top-ten awards

1. Most understated quote
“The Treasury may not have secured the best price for the advice.”
(National Audit Office referring to £107.1m paid to accountants, lawyers and bankers between September 07 and March 09).

2. Most inappropriately named executive
Sir Fred Good-win

3. Most appropriately named executive
Bernard Mad(e)-off

4. Best monetarist trick
Quantitative easing

5. Best UK prime minister by default
Sir Mervyn King

6. Worst UK prime minister by default
Gordon Brown

7. Greatest global blood-sucker
Goldman Sachs

8. Best UK sucker
Alistair Darling

9. Best white-knuckle ride
FTSE 100

10. Most hated activity
Investment banking or UK Government borrowing (equal 10th)


Sunday, 27 December 2009

A gift to Mammon

A gift to Mammon

We have survived again. The gift to Mammon and the gifts to everyone we know and just about everyone we ever knew. If you are a child of the Western world, then the gifts are so numerous that like all things en-masse they are not special, not wanted and absolutely not appreciated. The giver makes no sacrifice and the child must know this. My granddaughter is so bored with ripping off the paper that she leaves the room and starts skipping with her old rope in the hallway. Why can’t we learn? Bring back the money box and the rainy day. Don’t chastise her later on for wanting her own way all the time. It is your fault, not hers.

Eaten too much of the wrong things – again. Drunk too much and tried too hard to keep up the mindless banter about things that don’t matter with people you would not normally choose to be with. What is worse, there is still New Year to come. If I decide to go that far.


Sunday, 20 December 2009

Getting Wet On Rainy Days

Getting wet on rainy days

A recurring theme in the Credit Crunch Diary and in certain articles (such as The Parable of the House Builders) and in discussing the role of a good financial director of any business (including UK Ltd), has been the vitality of building reserves, getting some financial muscle on the skeleton – even a touch of fat.

Just think about this. The Bank of England in its latest report has claimed that if Britain’s biggest banks had put aside 20% of the cash they paid their staff and shareholders in the eight years preceding the credit crises, they would not have needed bailing out by the taxpayer.

For a banker to have built such a reserve does not strike me as overly prudent. But then, as we know, prudence was found murdered quite some time ago.


Saturday, 19 December 2009

Saab Is Scrapped

Saab is scrapped

My credit crunch diary spoke much about the big global motor manufacturers: how sales plummeted, the demise and bankruptcy and pull-out and how ownership changed fundamentally.

Aside from what was generally thought to be a good sound engine and individually quirky design, Saab must at one point have been an attractive business proposition or else why did General Motors buy it? However, that is now sadly all history. I wrote in the past that the company was returning to Sweden. That was premature. Then it was going Dutch. Now that too has failed. Saab is in tune with the scrappage schemes and is to be scrapped.

Once again the Chinese have done the clever thing and bought the technology and someone may pop up and buy the brand name. Not that that is much consolation for the UK’s 80 dealerships. Seems there is not much national pride left, at any rate in Sweden. Have been considering a little holiday there but probably won’t bother now especially as Volvo might well be next.


Saturday, 12 December 2009

Sheer brilliance

Sheer brilliance

The more time passes in the death throes of this UK administration, the more I become convinced that the brown stuff is brilliant. Brilliant at borrowing money, brilliant at spending money and now brilliant at pledging money. There is a direct correlation between sheer brilliance of this kind and the knowledge that none of this money is actually his and in six months time (as now) there will be absolutely no accountability.

Just brilliant.



Friday, 11 December 2009

Reparations

Reparations

Last week over three days I helped my son smash up an old patio and throw all the debris into a mini-skip before laying a new one. The reparation is estimate to add £5,000 to the value of the barn. I occasionally stay at the barn overnight.

The materials used were:-

12 new slabs

One ton of hardcore and one ton of slate chippings

Half a ton of builders’ sand and a bag of sharp sand and two bags of cement

Wooden battons, sundry screws and nails.

The services used were:-

Hire of mini-skip

Hire of wacker machine and sundry tools including heavy pick and hammer

42 hours of labour at £15 per hour.

The total cost came to £1,290 plus vat at the special temporary rate of 15%.

I mention all this since I have designated the barn as my second home and sent the total account to my local MP who has agreed, since I am an exemplary citizen, to lose it in his next claim and reimburse me accordingly.

As honest taxpayers, it is only fair to put you in the picture and at this time when the latest round of MP’s claims is much bigger news alongside the PBS. The MP agrees with me that this is a good time to claim such a trifling sum.

More at - www.jgwalkersmith.co.uk


Tuesday, 8 December 2009

The return of long-termism

The return of long-termism

Years ago I was a member of the Long-Term Planning Association. I have no idea whether it still exists. It, and its members, attracted much cynicism not least after the author of a best-selling book recalled that, as the corporate long-term planner, he returned home from the office to be greeted by his wife with the words “Hello darling – and what have you long-term planned today?”

I predict that in 2010 there will be a leitmotif. It will be the return of the long-term planning mindset. I know from personal experience that it is one thing to manage when things go well. Quite another when things start to go wrong: when the market starts to move away. So we shall see a sea-change in 2010. The short-termism at the heart of the financial crisis of 07-09 and the short-term crisis management, both monetary and fiscal, characteristic of the second half of 2009, will be history.

The entire global system will shift to a longer-term focus. The whole culture of sod the future, someone else can take care of that, will go. Good worthwhile pay packets will only be forthcoming from proven long-term success. Top managers will call the bluff of short-term whizz kids, if they want to all congregate in Hong Kong, so be it. China will be (actually is) as focussed on a solid tomorrow as anyone.

John Maynard Keynes famously put it “In the long run we are all dead”. True, but there is a whole load of bright children following on and we owe them a future. A spot of altruism would not go amiss. Your resolution for 2010: “Think tomorrow”.



Monday, 7 December 2009

Sweets from a sweetie

Sweets from a sweetie

The Lord of all Business thinks it would be quite wrong for the quintessentially British Cadbury to be Krafted into a chocolate bar; whilst admitting that he can do little about it. How normal an approach in these oh-so-illogical times.

It was quite o.k. for our steel to go Far East and our Ports to go Middle East and our airports to go Spanish and our utilities to go European mainland, but sweet crème eggs – good gracious me no. And in any case, they have only just cottoned on that dark chocolate is best, leave the little darlings alone.

Chapter 10 of my book Violets hints about Cadbury’s perceived superiority over a then competitor, although granted we were in a cake mix and not a milk chocolate one.

The board of Cadbury will duly reject the Kraft bid today. But like eating too many out of the Milk Tray selection, the sickly feeling comes later.



Wednesday, 2 December 2009

Chelsea Not On Top

Chelsea not on top

This headline will not be recognised by football fans. But we are not talking about the premier league but rather impending relegation from the building society league.

Twice in the past year I have blogged disparagingly about Chelsea Building Society. First when its Annual Report disclosed the level of remuneration paid to its top people coupled to the admission of bad loans in the Icelandic direction. Secondly about the reported mortgage fraud in its buy-to-let book. The sum of these Icelandic and fraud losses amounted to some £85m. I had a personal interest to the tune of a sizeable one-year bond paying 6.75% that was unbelievably high for the times. Needless to say, it came out of Chelsea on maturity. I also pointed out that Chelsea wasn’t Chelsea but Cheltenham.

So, there is a touch of irony in that it is Chelsea bondholders who, by writing off half of their investment and having coco for supper, will allow the society to be taken out by Yorkshire Building Society. It seems there was just nowhere else to run. The second irony is that whereas I thought 6.75% was high, the coupon on the reduced contingent capital is a whopping 13.5%.

Good luck Yorkshire, you are now in charge – one hopes.

Comment and much more at www.jgwalkersmith.co.uk

Monday, 30 November 2009

Europe 3 – UK 0

Europe 3 – UK 0

Under the auspices of the European League, the UK has just lost 3-0.

The ink was barely dry on my blog that under the new constitution, Europe actually needed no Mr President since they had a power lady already in place with Neelie when, by some stroke of genius, she is replaced. Replaced in the most vital job of all as far as the UK in concerned, that is, the economic one. Her replacement is an avowed federalist. But the game was all but over by the time this third goal had whizzed past the keeper.

Goal number one was of course the placing of an introvert Belgium as Mr President and the second was an own goal by an unknown British lady with good experience of local government to help run all European foreign affairs.


I am not a football fan but it sounded a good game even though the UK got relegated.

Saturday, 28 November 2009

Lloyds Banking Group Escape Route

Lloyds Banking Group escape route

The mechanism and price of the escape route for Lloyds Banking Group out of the APS programme is now agreed. Due to the success of the first element which was to issue £8.8bn worth of contingent convertible bonds, the rights issue is somewhat stronger than initially thought and as set out in this diary dated 9th November.

The rights issue is valued at £13.5bn and means it is the highest ever attempted beating the HSBC issue by some £.3bn. Of equal significance is that Lloyds has the largest private shareholder base of any company listed on the London Stock Exchange at 2.8 million people and amounting to about 7.5% of the equity. The event is therefore of major public interest. Furthermore, since the taxpayer owns 43.4% of the business and intends to keep it that way, the Government (that is the taxpayer) is going to stump up a further £5.8bn just to stay still.

The issue, (as approved by a vote of shareholders on the 26th November) is of 1.34 shares for each existing share (previously 2 for 1 was mooted) at a price of 37p per share. The market overall seems pleased since the share price ahead of the issue had passed the 93p price. Post the approval, it fell as expected to around 58p.

The taxpayer does have some compensation in that £2.5bn has already been paid for insurance of the assets up to this point and £144m will be the underwriting fee. The investment banks will also have a fee bonanza – as usual.

Was it all worth it to escape the insurance scheme? The market seems to think so. As a fairly large private shareholder, I hope so.


Friday, 27 November 2009

Dubai And Debt

Dubai and debt

Ok, it is a hackneyed phrase but they must be turning in their grave. Back in 1822 Brodie McGhie Willcox and Arthur Anderson got together and were joined in 1835 by Captain Richard Bourne to form in 1837 what was to become the well loved and greatly respected Peninsular & Oriental Steam Navigation Company (P&O): registered by Royal Charter. As recently as 2004 it was glorified in the FTSE 100 as a prime UK-based business turning over £2.4bn and with over 22,000 employees world-wide.

P&O not only weathered the seven seas, its assets and men weathered British interests to the tune of losing 85 ships in the Great War and 179 in World War 2. From packages to heavy freight to the largest ocean-going liners to hotels and ports, P&O bestrode the world. Then, like all great empires, it started to fade. The liners faded into Carnival and the ports and infrastructure faded into DP World except that American Senators cried foul and an American business subservient to (can you believe) AIG bought out the American ports on nationalistic grounds after ex-President Bush threatened to veto any deal to let Arabs have his port interests.

Can this woeful story have a happy end? It is just possible since DP World is part of Dubai World which is a Dubai government investment company that cannot pay its way. Its huge debt way. So huge that the financial world shudders once again and all the stock exchanges are flashing red. Come on British Business Ltd, go get our P & O back.

More at my website: http://www.jgwalkersmith.co.uk

Tuesday, 24 November 2009

Embarrassing or what..

Embarrassing or what..

The poor old lady must have been squirming in her gilded seat.

“My Government ….” If ever anyone wished they did not own something!

Aside from the fact that the legislation outlined in the latest Queen’s speech has only an outside chance of ever hitting the statute book, how does one legislate away half of the nation’s debt? It was, after all, acquired without legislation. Sort of laissez faire really.

Hope my three clever granddaughters read this in a few years time. It will give them a huge belly-laugh. Not that either has a belly of course; unlike UK Ltd.

More comment and articles on my Website

Sunday, 22 November 2009

Neelie The Elephant

23rd November 09 – Neelie the elephant

She’s not really an elephant but merely a behemoth beast. Neelie Kroes has done it again. The European Competition Commissioner has done it again ; eaten Angela Merkel for breakfast. Just as well for the German Chancellor that she rode to victory in the elections on the back of saving thousands of German Opel jobs by backing the Canadian car parts firm Magna to buy GM Europe assisted by the Russian bank Sberbank.

Kroes broke up the Dutch bank ING, played a starring role in the reduction of Lloyds Banking Group and RBS and now has helped persuade GM that they might as well do their own thing with their European business since by the time Neelie has felled another tree, the answer will be about the same. Of course, the Russian bear is sore.

Few items of news have occupied more column inches in the credit crunch aftermath than what the bankrupt GM Motors would do with its European wing. With 25,000 jobs at stake in mainland Europe and 5,000 in the UK plus probably as many again in the ranks of distributors and ancillary trades, it was and still is one of the major fall-outs.

Well, the Americans have stood their ground and the sovereign governments will have to put up if they want to keep the business in tact. All this talk of the new European Constitution and whether there will be a European President seems a bit pointless. We already have the most powerful person in Europe firmly in place. Not nearly but Neelie.


Monday, 16 November 2009

If A Soft Man Turns Hard

If A Soft Man Turns Hard

It was sort of inevitable that President Obama would stop off in Singapore en-route China since it is the thrusting little state of the Far East that cannot be ignored (refer to Chapter 11 of Violets) as a microcosm of the China syndrome.

Ex President Bush played the hard man, ably backed by his Treasury Secretary of the time. They put the East/West trade imbalance on the line and blamed China openly for its currency hold-down in support of its exporters and worried openly about China’s purchase of stakes in mines in Africa and elsewhere to support its gargantuan appetite for commodities.

Then came a softer approach from the new administration. The two big powers needed to understand each other, needed to get closer together on economic thinking. The trouble is that China has continued to pump its money into the supply side by building more and more infrastructure: more manufacturing capacity. It has played with its worry beads about its external funds invested in the greenback and even threatened to invent its own world currency exchange.

The employment situation in the US is very grim and getting worse no matter the rate of unemployment may be steadying off.

What happens when the soft man turns hard? In my experience he can be harder than the upfront hard man. The US economy is still vastly greater than that of China. If President Obama closes the door for a year or two, China will be in the biggest mess the economic world has ever seen. If the students with their primed questions laugh at Obama like they did at Bush, watch the worm turn.

More comment and articles on my Website.

Sunday, 15 November 2009

“Probably the worst managed bank this country has ever seen.”

16th November 09 – “Probably the worst managed bank this country has ever seen.”

The quote from Lord Myners, the City minister, relates to none other than the Royal Bank of Scotland (RBS) as it was announced that it would use the Government’s Asset Protection Scheme (APS) for £282b of toxic assets. It will stand the first £60b of losses itself.

A further £25.5b is to be pumped into the bank (in “B” shares with a coupon of 7%) to add to the £20b of existing support and giving the taxpayer an 84.4% holding in the beleaguered outfit. A further £8b could be injected in the future should the tier 1 ratio fall below 5%.

Like Lloyds Banking Group (see entry dated 9th November 09) concessions have been dragged out of the bank as one cost of the saviour efforts. Cash bonuses are to cease for those on salaries above £39,000 pa in favour of shares and even new recruits who were appointed on multi-million “guarantees” will be caught. Directors are to defer bonuses until 2012 and clawback clauses will apply. RBS will have a lending target of £25b for this year and next.

Facing up to Europe’s competition authorities, RBS will sell its insurance arm Sempra, its global payments business and 312 branches.

Lloyds and RBS taken together, it is estimated that 10% of all personal banking and small business arrangements will pass to new owners over the term of the deal.

All that “goodwill” on past acquisitions wiped out at a stroke.


Thursday, 12 November 2009

What A Lottery!

What a lottery!

Combining two sources creates “A voluntary tax on the stupid”.

Impatiently waiting to pay for my Saturday paper, the lady at the counter looked (as my dad would have put it) as if she hadn’t two half-pennies to rub together. Her clothes were old and very worn and her hair not brushed since last Saturday at least. She bought one of those magazines aimed at young girls that have alluring bangles and sparkly things on the front cover and which I know from getting them myself for a granddaughter cost about £1.60. But the lady’s bill came to £18.60. Why?

Three scratch cards and three lottery tickets for tonight and three for something in the week is the answer.

Some statistical wag has just calculated that if one buys a lottery ticket at 4pm on a Monday, the odds favour your death within the next 40 minutes rather than a win on the lottery next Saturday. Whether that is any win or the massive Euro Lottery win just announced, I know not but the point is well made.

The couple who have just picked up £48m or so will be ruined. No ordinary human being can handle that sort of windfall. Plenty extraordinary souls cannot either. 48 people winning £1m each would have made more sense.

Was the lady just plain stupid or is the scratch card and lottery phenomenon symptomatic of a despairing society where there are only two hopes left – make the beautiful granddaughter happy for a few minutes and to get something big to get me out of this lot?

More financial comment at www.jgwalkersmith.co.uk


Tuesday, 10 November 2009

A Race Apart

A race apart

Having blogged on this before, it still blows my mind. The disconnection betwixt the demonstrable affects of the continuing UK recession and the activities of the unaffected.

We have just returned from a celebratory two days and one night at the Belfry, the HQ of UK golf. The car park is huge with only the Ferrari Dino and The Bentley Mulsanne managing to stand out from the everyday Mercs and Beamers. The vast main restaurant (£25 per head for the buffet) was packed from 7 pm onwards as was the golf bar from 3 pm. To leave means a good five minutes wait before a gap opens up on the passing A446. All this on the manufacturing-depleted outskirts of Birmingham.

We stop off en-route back for a spot of Christmas shopping (with 13% of the year yet to go before the commercial feast day) to find central Nottingham heaving and specifically the erstwhile MP’s listed store John Lewis packed to the gunwales with free-spending cosmopolitans and where ipods at £115 were flying off the shelf.

Still trying to comprehend, I telephone the Manchester Crowne Plaza for a room on Saturday 28th November to find they are full, “Manchester City are playing that day and the Classical Spectacular is on at the MEN Arena.”

In my little book “Derbyshire born …” I refer to the haves and the have nots of the early 1950’s in rural Derbyshire. The disparity is wider now and those that worry about it, are hiding under the bed.


Monday, 9 November 2009

The APS that wasn’t

The APS that wasn’t

Back on the 13th August, I was writing a piece that assumed that the new Lloyds Banking Group (LBG) would sign the government inspired Asset Protection Scheme (APS) agreement. Well, it never was signed and now will not be. Rather the bank has crawled out from under the insurance cover preferring big funding actions and bowing to competitive pressure issues from Europe.

The future shape of LBG can be summarised as follows:-
There will be a massive (the largest ever in the UK) rights issue to raise £13.5b. The shares will be issued on the basis of 2 for each existing share and priced at the higher of 15p or a 38% to 42% discount to the ex-rights price and calculated as 29p or 34p based on the closing price on Monday 2nd November 09.
£7.5b of debt will be swapped for capital that can convert to shares.
The Government will pump a further £5.7b into the bank to augment the £15b of taxpayer support previously applied.
Cash bonuses are banned to staff on salaries above £39,000. Bonuses will have to be in shares.
Board directors will defer all their bonuses until 2012.
All bonuses will be subject to clawbacks.
Lending targets have been set at £14b for both this year and next.
600 branches of Lloyds/TSB must be sold, together with the Cheltenham & Gloucester branded accounts and mortgages and the Intelligent Finance business, all by the end of 2013. Halifax is to be retained.
Acquisitions are banned for the next four years.
Dividends are banned until the end of January 2012.
There is an expected hit of about £34b in loan losses for the next two years.

Quite a turn up. And to think that I used to bank with Bank of Scotland, a lovely friendly bank that had pushed quietly Southwards and started off the bidding round for Natwest. How times change.

Read About My Own Life In Business at http://www.jgwalkersmith.co.uk

Thursday, 5 November 2009

Back To School

Back to school

Taking a young child to school for the 9am start is a very emotional experience. It happens to me occasionally either with my two granddaughters in Bristol or my third one on the Nottinghamshire/Lincolnshire border.

I think it is because whether we are walking hand in hand (Bristol) or driving (Notts/Lincs), there is always much chatter and today for instance about bonfire night and the danger involved and needing to stand well back from the fire behind a fence. And with sparklers the fact that they are still hot after they have finished burning and so there must be a bucket of sand or water ready to put the spent sparkler in.

All this follows making sure the school clothes are on properly, the school work is in the bag together with a bottle of water and sandwiches and biscuits and grapes for lunch. It is a busy and exciting hour or so, until the school gate is reached.

Then it all changes. The hand is released, “goodbye granddad”, she turns away and walks on already having met up with a friend. She has entered a different and full world and I am left empty and drained. I shout “bye Katy” or “bye Colette” or “bye Zoe” but it is not heard. She doesn’t turn around, she has gone.

There was no taking to school in Newton in 1948 or warnings about the dangers of bonfires and sparklers. You were just thrown in and that was that. I will re-read my book “Derbyshire born” and try and imagine how different was that record of early school life compared with whatever Katy is experiencing this morning in her bright new school. It might help, but I still feel lost.

Tuesday, 3 November 2009

Lloyds Banking Group And Robots

Lloyds Banking Group and robots

I should be writing about LBG’s great escape from the Asset Purchase Scheme but that can wait the “credit crunch aftermath diary” once the final details are announced later today. Instead, I can announce the replacement of humans by robots.

My wife has banked with Lloyds for over forty years and when there has been a little problem can pick up the ‘phone and chat to the lady in the Mansfield branch and sort it. Now a small diversion. It is well known that power in a two-way communication always lies with the questioner. That is why the media interviewers are always on the front foot.

Suppose a cheque has gone missing either courtesy of our kamikaze friends at Royal (does the Queen still approve by the way?) Mail or due to inefficiency of the receiver. No matter, all we need do is cancel it and start again. Try getting that through to the new robot who does not ask the question “Do you want to cancel a cheque?” He will ask for your account number (either tell me or input from your telephone key pad) and your identification number (which of course is long forgotten) and what the cheque number is you are enquiring about and confirm it has not been processed. But that is all folks – bad luck.

My advice is, go to First Direct, who still employ people.

From Farm Boy To Financier: Read My Book Derbyshire Born.

Monday, 2 November 2009

Of Confidence

Of Confidence

In the early days of the credit crunch diary, I referred to the esoteric factor of confidence as the most important ingredient in getting things going again and likened it to “culture” overlaying the performance of a corporate body.

Market research company Nielsen has published its latest survey on consumer confidence showing the highest level for eighteen months. Specifically, sentiment about personal finances has improved a little and attitudes to spending on discretionary items are more positive. Overall the consumer confidence index rose to 75 in October being a 10 point gain on the all-time low registered in April 09.

Significantly, 20% of people now believe job prospects in the UK will be “good” or “excellent” over the next twelve months compared with 14% in June 09. Adding some mollification, the British Retail Consortium’s (BRC) director general, Stephen Robertson said “There’s no question the general mood of customers is better than a year ago when conditions were dire, but improvements have been slow so far. Half of consumers believe we’ll still be in recession in a year’s time. More than half are worried about jobs and their own finances and that will hold back full scale recovery well into next year.”

One other aspect of aftermath is worth noting since it is definitely a factor in my family. People still in employment are working harder and there has been an increase in people feeling their work-life balance is their biggest concern (9% compared with 4% a year ago.)

Now available in paperback!
Derbyshire Born - My journey from Farm Boy To Financier.

Welcome The Big Scene

Welcome the big scene

Desperate to find the macro and shake off the micro, desperate to see global and dismiss with disdain our small Island’s woeful leadership and weak opposition, I homed in on some statistics trotted out by Alan Steel, chairman of Alan Steel Asset Management in a piece in Saturday’s Daily Telegraph. I know not whether they are truly factual, but I hope so. And hope is at the zenith of my economic horizon as we successfully survive Hallowe’en.

“First, there are three billion people in the developing world who want to be better off; 180,000 people a day in these countries are moving from the country to the city, increasing their income and prospects. This will continue for at least the next 20 years. Growth in India, China and Latin America has accelerated. It’s expected imports to (he means their exports to) China will dramatically rise shortly, benefiting commodity funds. The second reason is Generation Y in the US. This is a generation 20% bigger than the post-war Baby Boom generation. It’s estimated they’re four times wealthier than baby boomers in real terms. And progress and new opportunities will come out of left field.”

Alan Steel’s context is British investors. Mine is the big scene and time enough to find better economic leaders in our little bit of that big scene.

Read My Book Derbyshire Born (How Life In Middle England Changed After The War)

Friday, 30 October 2009

Maverick No 2

30 October 2009 – Maverick No 2

Lloyds Banking Group is starting to mimic Barclays in the maverick stakes. Not in terms of declining the taxpayers shilling (much too late for that) but in shedding the handcuffs of the Asset Protection Scheme (APS). It has been a long time in coming and it will cost but the European competition commissioners, the UK Government and the tripartite authorities have given permission for Lloyds BG to go fund-raising and asset divesting to avoid the expensive APS insurance.

To reach today’s point has been a bumpy ride for the long-suffering long-holding shareholders. Over the past 52 weeks, the share price has ranged from 210p down to 40p at the nadir. As recently as the end of September 09 the shares were priced at 110p before falling as worries about the fund-raising escalated to touch 80p a few days ago. Now as the thinking is that the rights issue discount could give an issue price as low as 30p, the shares are touching 87p on a volume of 106 million shares and that two hours before the market closes.

Obviously, the potential capital strength of Britain’s second biggest bank has held sway in favour of a break-up such as will happen to Dutch bank ING. The sell off of bits such as the old TSB branches in Scotland, Cheltenham & Gloucester BS and Intelligent Finance are not viewed as great events in the scheme of things.

At 30p, any new shares I am allowed to buy will do wonders for my average holding price and so say all of us and good riddance APS.

Thursday, 29 October 2009

The Brains Behind

The brains behind

What really encourages me, now that we have just about reached the second anniversary of the Northern Rock disaster, is not the decision to split that business into two bits of deemed “good” and expected “bad” or even the European endorsed motive of increased competition. Rather, it is the talent lurking in Britain today. Wherever it has come from, what is evident is that there are some first-rate brains at work and we should be pleased about that.

The work that must have gone into this plan and others in the pipeline is an example of a high-level service industry that can and does serve Britain well. In the historical cycle of things, it was inevitable that much low skill manufacturing would migrate to the emerging nations. That is not to say we cannot add value with brainpower. Wish I was still in the swim.

Monday, 26 October 2009

What Goes Around Comes Around

26 October 2009 - What Goes Around Comes Around

As time passes so I believe the old adage that what goes around comes round is true. When I was growing up on a small farm (see Derbyshire born –www.jgwalkersmith.co.uk) farmers were a very important section of society. Many of my generation can trace their roots back to the land. The last fifty years has seen such a reversal that farmers are invisible and farming is never spoken of.

A report by Standard Chartered “The end of cheap food” says in relation to indigenous food production that North Africa and the Middle East has already turned negative. The same is nearly true of China. Topsoil is so weakened by intensiveness that clouds of dust are spreading over Asia, parched land becomes desert and rivers run dry. It seems that China has lost 1,400 square miles to desert each year of the last decade. Urban sprawl covers fertile land in China’s east territory whilst the Himalayan glaciers are ebbing and the Yellow River no longer reaches the sea for 200 days a year. Northern Indian has a similar plight.

Either Russia, the Ukraine and Central and Southern Africa will fill the void or else your local farmer will become very important and very rich once more. Hope I live to see it. In our local community only farmers work all hours and every day. Others might claim to but farmers actually do.

Sunday, 25 October 2009

Fascism - Really??

Fascism - Really?? – 24th October 09

In my latest bit of aftermath to the credit crunch diary year, dated 24th October 09, I suggested a mild bit of revolution regarding the economic team running the UK. On the same theme of revolution, the first poll of a sample nation following the anti-climactic BBC Question Time programme suggested that 20% of the populous were “thinking about” voting for the BNP.

Think black shirts, think Mosley, think about a small island called Singapore (refer to my book Violets, Chapter 11, page 171) that just twenty years after being ripped apart by Japanese troops, pulled itself up by its own bootstraps with as diverse an ethnic group imaginable all pulling together for a common good.

May daylight shine in the darkest corners. Think on you 20%.

Great expectations

24 October 2009 – Great expectations

Dashed. I know of no leading economist or respected economic institution that did not think that the UK economy would pull out of recession in the third quarter of 2009, that is, as ended on 30th September. But it was not to be unless later revisions change the figures. The economy shrank by 0.4% in that quarter to bring total output down nearly 6%.

According to The Office for National Statistics, every sector contracted except for a “flat” public sector. The big surprise was a further decline in the most important services sector not least due to the rampant time investment banks are known to have been experiencing. Management consultancy has been doing well too. One assumes it is the professional services associated with the construction and related areas that still pull down the overall services sector average.

What are the consequences of the surprise failure to move back into the black?
Sterling weakened closing down 2.4 cents against the dollar at $1.6338 wiping out earlier gains. This should continue to help exporters but also led to Britain slipping down to seventh place in the economic nation league table
The yield on gilts fell sharply on expectations that the QE programme will be increased beyond the £175bn current threshold
The equity market continued to shrug its shoulders with the FTSE 100 closing up 35.2 points at 5,242.

The political take on the economic news is interesting. There would seem to be a difference of opinion. Our laid back, one hesitates to use the word moribund, Chancellor Alistair Darling ( a Darling was a deer hunter by the way) said “I’ve always been clear that growth will return at the turn of the year” whilst his shadow George Osborne replied “Britain urgently needs new economic leadership.”

I have a new team in mind. Mervyn King for PM and our Vince for chancellor. The revolution starts right here.

Friday, 23 October 2009

Let's Just Pretend For A Moment....

Let’s pretend I’m a financial director. I go to this month’s board meeting with figures showing last month’s sales down 6.3% and costs up 4.9%. The company’s borrowings in the half year ended last month are 128.7% higher than in the comparative period. The trend line of borrowings indicates a year-end figure of about 220 against the budget I submitted to the board at the start of the year of 175 or an increase of 25.7%. Furthermore, the price of the debt is high relative to a 0.5% bank rate and stretching out until the year 2060.

My questions are these:-
Will I be sweating or calm as a cucumber with eyebrows a different colour to my head of hair?
Will I be challenged by my MD for competency and pressurised by the whole board to step down?
Does it matter that I am at odds with the big bank manager who publicly proclaims a solution to the debt problem different to the one I have put to the board?

By the way, the company is UK Ltd and the numbers shown are in £billions.

Monday, 19 October 2009

Whirligig!

Whirligig is a wonderful word, I use it a lot. It is almost, but not quite, onomatopoeic. Whirligig is old, according to the Collins dictionary it is 15th century “whirlegigge” made from whirl and gig. Literally it is any spinning toy, such as a top. Another name for merry-go-round. Anything that whirls about, spins or moves in a circular or giddy way.

For the actual numbers quoted here, I am indebted to an article called “Buy equities, sell bonds” by Ian Mc Diarmid in Shares magazine.

By 1st October 09, the Bank of England had completed £158bn of its allotted £175bn asset purchase programme and of this 98% has been gilts. That is to say, government debt with a prescribed coupon maturing at a prescribed date. This exercise has been termed quantitative easing (QE) or more colloquially “printing money”. Neither lending by the big banks nor M4 – broad money supply – has increased very much notwithstanding this huge injection of funds into the gilt market. Rather, the banks in a drive to rebuild their balance sheets have held on to the proceeds of the gilts they have sold to the central bank. When these banks have large surplus cash they pass it for save keeping (and a bit of interest) to the Bank of England.

So there we have it. The Bank of England prints money and uses this paper to buy gilts from banks who then return the cash so received to the Bank of England. Oh what a tangled web we weave. Whirligig.

Incidentally, the net issuance of all gilts in the years 06/07 and 07/08 averaged £30bn or about 20% of what has just been bought in.

Much more on my Website

Friday, 16 October 2009

Would Anyone Appear On TV If They Didn`t Have A Book To Plug??



My director was reading from an appraisal form. I was stung “But Henry, that is just not fair.” He paused. “No John, life isn’t fair.” Henry is long since dead. Life goes on.

Sir Ranulph Fiennes is a great man. No cynicism intended. But there is something very unfair about a slot on breakfast TV to plug his latest book. Something very unfair about a national book retailer taking full-page adverts to plug the books of five “celebrities” and then fill their window display with the publicity material to back it up.

I am not saying that my book “Violets” is a literary masterpiece but it would stand up against these six works except of course it will not since no-one knows about it.

Much More at: http://www.jgwalkersmith.co.uk


Turn Again Whittington

16 October 2009 – Turn again Whittington

The famous Christmas pantomime is supposedly based upon the story or Richard Whittington, a medieval man from Gloucester, who found fortune (with his cat) when he turned to London to find the streets paved in gold. So did the aptly named Goldman Sachs. The biggest investment bank is the leading lady in a pantomime only too familiar to chief executives needing to raise capital (due largely to the consequences of the credit crisis), re-finance generally, re-structure or do a spot of merger or acquisition work.

The fact is that in this recovery period, competition for the big financial services has reduced significantly. So what? Well, one can widen the spreads, up the margins and push service charges through the roof. Risk has not gone away and if you want those shoes mending, the monopoly cobbler can charge more. Simple as that. The fact is that markets cannot be regulated away and the regulators and controllers cannot do what has to be done themselves.

The likes of Goldmans are actually needed. If that golden goose is maimed, another egg will surely be laid someplace else. In the third quarter of 09, Goldman’s revenues increased by 105% on the comparative period to reach $12.3bn. From a UK economic viewpoint that is excellent news since about 43% of revenue is paid to its staff and the treasury takes a top-slice 52% of that. It also takes a whopping chunk of profit in corporation tax. For a full current year, it is thought that the UK taxpayer will pull back about £2.5bn just from this one business. That will pay for a few dolers.

What is more, the ultimate risk-takers, the shareholders, got a 21.4% return in that third quarter. Admit it, you are just jealous.

Wednesday, 14 October 2009

Catching ones breath

Catching ones breath - 14 October 2009

The credit crunch diary poem dated 9th October was intended to summarise the key events of a very special year. A year in which the economic world was caught on the hop. A world of events that started in some remote distant place, like an earthquake in San Francisco, that sounds bad and must be horrible for those left homeless over there but will not, let’s face it, affect us.

Except this time the homeless will affect us because unlike an act of God, this event is an act of man. Man at his most avarice.

After a full year of commentary and blogging, it was time to retreat to a secret place where only sea and wind crash in as a harmless spectacle. Time to catch ones breath so as to climb a mountain and take in a spectacular view of what nature intended and man can not mess with.

So, the credit crunch diary, etched into my life between successive Octobers, has ended. I hope readers enjoyed it and appreciated the research and the asides. It will live again as a whole and be re-launched as a book. A historical record of the year. Watch the website for the birth.

Meantime, is it not incredible that the Magna saga lives on? Lord Mandelson has concluded (well, actually he didn’t, my old firm PricewaterhouseCoopers did) that the business plan has “shortcomings”. No kidding! It worked before with 25% of the UK Vauxhall workforce gone and now with no compulsory redundancies, how can it still work? You will recall form my diary that Germany was to disproportionately benefit from job cuts amounting to about 16% of their, admittedly much larger, manning level for Opel. But this is the new Europe and Neelie (not Nearly) Kroes, the European Competition Commissioner, thought that the four-and-a-half billion euros offered by the Federal German government looked a bit like a bribe. Like Britain, Spain, Poland and Belgium where none too chuffed either. Nevertheless, GM is going to do the deal with Magna (and Russia) and sod the European governments.

The spreadsheets in that business plan must look a bit wobbly, especially as a bolt-on to a Canadian car parts outfit. My wife would like a new Astra. Whether it will come from Ellesmere Port is still in doubt but we will keep tabs on events.

Thursday, 8 October 2009

That Was The Credit Year That Was

9th October 09 – That was the (credit) year that was

There were some poor folk across the pond
and a cold shiver is slowly wending
The Fed puts up the interest rate ‘cause
there’s been some very lax lending.

The credit checks were not that sound, housing
market collapses,
with assets bundled up and sold,
Sold in securitised packages.

If you’re the buyer, it’s not your fault
The world’s like a ram on the tup,
but some clever sods in some distant bank
just sold you the world’s biggest pup.

US bean-counters quickly make the great money bets
Although historical records will tell
that $700bn of green backs for bank toxic debts
went some place else, and a bit extra as well.

Back home in Blighty and in the Brown stuff
we’re a match for the old Yankee troopers,
£500bn of huff and of puff (37% of our entire GDP)
- Come on Europe, wake up, follow suit,
Don’t play the old party poopers.

But No 1 i.e. Germany is not on our side
Not that Keynesian you see,
Yet, by the time this year is played out,
as before, they are down on one knee.

Spain is a shame, the Costas are missed
We went there each year to get pissed,
But with apartments all built on sand
unemployment is now15% and the casa takes 65%
of that hard-earned cash in hand.

Ireland is green, and perhaps a bit green
to guarantee all bank deposits and bail out
its three biggest banks,
but, caught twixt a rock and a hard place
(in euros up to its shanks) since
it exports to us and to US
whose currency takes quite a slating,
so Standard & Poor think, ta very much Mik,
we’ll grab back your AAA rating.


The UK now enters the second dark ages,
its economists spout forth as if new-age sages,
but theory is theory and like lambs to the slaughter,
output drops by 6.4%, and in one single quarter.
Shopkeepers are we and we used to ride high
but gone dear old Woolworths, and gone MFI.
The Brown stuff awakes “try fiscal” says he
and knocks 2.5% (temporarily) of the VAT.
Shareholders are bleeding, bleeding faces like thunder,
Why? 2008, down 34% - The Footsie 100.
Ever a silver lining, here’s one little beauty,
UK Treasury is down £6bn as house sales pan,
down on insidious stamp duty.

We had four banks that now are two, so you would
think competition needs no more glue.
Though not so. The Brown stuff says “waive that aside, I’ve £17bn
riding the new Lloyds Banking Group’s backside.”
It looks bad, it feels bad, there’s no good, you’ll see,
and no good there was, for shareholders like me.

No tale of woe is complete without its rogues.
We heard the word Ponzi and sorry, what did you say?
I said pay out today what you got in yesterday.
It’s easy and simple, just bluff and don’t flaff,
Security regulation? You are having a laugh.
Madoff made off and guilty the plea
while Stanford played cricket with wives on a knee.

When folks stop buying – no new motor for me,
especially of the big American gas-guzzling three,
GM, Chrysler and Ford,
down on their uppers with just one accord,
the first lost its Europe, after Chapter 11 ashes
Chrysler found Italy to save a few blushes and Ford,
good old Ford, just about held its sway
but never again, the American way.

It’s important to learn how economies got sick
Tell you what I’ve learned. Learned how to get rich.
Bought a new press and, if you please,
I’m printing and printing to quantitatively ease.
Using new money to buy up their bonds
that have to be auctioned to finance the debt wood
created by filling a banking black hole
caused by securities packaged though not understood.

Whirligig, whirligig – big hairy beast,
Wealth has just tilted, tilted due EAST.

Jgs – copyright reserved

Pearl of the week

“I don’t think there’s any reason why everyone is going to suddenly feel much better. But I don’t think they’re going to feel much worse.”

Sir Stuart Rose – Executive Chairman, Marks & Spencer plc

Wednesday, 7 October 2009

Save It!

8th October 09 – Save it!

Desperately searching for good news in this penultimate entry of my (nearly) year long diary, I found it nestling amongst some soft undergrowth of green shoots courtesy of the Office of National Statistics’ latest quarterly bulletin. At any rate, those long-suffering loyal readers of my diary and blog will recognise it as good news from my perspective given the encouragement to consumers to spend and spend again, has never resonated with me.

Just as in business enterprises, culture is everything, so in private households is behaviour. Behaviour, habit, custom, the pattern of how life is lived. The economic crisis has produced a change. The statistical measurement of how much British people are putting under the mattress (seeing as how banks have lost all credibility for Joe ordinary saver) has risen to 5.6% of their earnings in the second quarter of 2009. This figure is the highest since 2003 and compares with 1.7% in the same period last year.

The savings ratio – incidentally mirroring figures from the US – was accompanied by a few bits of other comfort. The ONS’s final estimate for UK economic growth in the second quarter showed a slightly lower decline in GDP than previously at -0.6% from -0.7%. Surprisingly too was a registered increase in household income of 0.9% and a drop in consumer spending (hence the savings result).

To put the green shoots into some sort of perspective, the ONS said that compared with last year, the economy has shrunk by 5.5%, the biggest annual decline since comparable records began in 1956. To conclude my good news search, the Bank of England said that in July 09, home owners repaid £203m more than they borrowed, the first time lending has been negative since the Bank’s data began in 1993.

I cannot think of a better slogan (pity one of the political parties didn’t dream it up prior to the current conference season) “Save and get out of debt”.


Tuesday, 6 October 2009

Road To Istanbul, And Back..

7th October 09 – Road to Istanbul, and back

On what is fast approaching the anniversary of this credit crunch diary, an even more important anniversary event is to be held in Istanbul. The International Monetary Fund (IMF) will unveil its “early warning system” designed to prevent future financial crisis of the magnitude catalogued in this diary. Istanbul (extremely aptly where the East meets the West) will witness the new set of models to become the centre piece of the IMF’s new post-crisis role in the economic world.

The future role of the IMF – agreed at the latest meeting of the G20 nations (refer back to the previous two diary entries) – is to ensure that financial bubbles do not build to threaten world economic stability. The crucial meeting is heralded as probably the most important in the history of the venerable body.

Hitherto, and has been reported many times in this diary over the past year in relation to specific nations, the IMF has been tasked to bail out economies struggling to finance themselves. Now it moves up a gear to actually monitor the health of the global financial system. This monitoring is of the extent to which the major economies stick to “balanced and sustainable growth.”

Julian Jessop, international economist at Capital Economics, said “This is a positive development. It would make sense to monitor the build up of financial instabilities. It will most likely focus its analysis on asset prices, and perhaps credit growth. To be fair to the IMF, it did lead the way in calling for a big fiscal stimulus early on in the crisis, so has a good basis for this role. It was quick to pick up on the scale of the problem and the need for a fiscal stimulus. In a sense it has had a good crisis.”

On balance and having learnt much myself over the past year, I concur with this view about the IMF. Wouldn’t it be nice if one day soon it relocated from Washington to (say) Istanbul. One might call it the half-way house in a changed world?



Monday, 5 October 2009

G20 Prognosticates And Procrastinates

6th October 09 – G20 prognosticates and procrastinates

The meeting of the G20 nations (which is to replace the G8 forum as the world’s leading economic master) in Pittsburgh – see yesterday’s diary entry – decided that their banks will be forced to more than double levels of capital reserves for the riskier parts of their operations. But, the meeting stopped short of placing specific minimum requirements for both liquidity and capital.

The Basel Committee on Banking Supervision will be asked to draft new rules on liquidity and capital reserves by the end of this calendar year. The stated objective is to strengthen the global banking system to withstand future shocks and make it less likely that sovereign government resources will be called upon.

The conduit for details was the Financial Stability Board (FSB). It’s final report said in relation to capital requirements that banks should be retaining profits now to meet future capital needs and to achieve this by a combination of:-
Restricting dividends to shareholders
Ceasing the practice of share buy-backs
Limiting compensation packages for its top managers (see yesterday’s entry).

In relation to trading activities, banks were instructed to ensure that the capital held to cover positions should probably double by the end of next year. The outcome would be a greatly improved Capital 1 tier ratio. The Basel framework will also require banks to be counter-cyclical by building capital reserves in the good times to provide a buffer for the bad.

On bank liquidity, the Basel committee will draft rules for a minimum global liquidity ratio to be applied across international borders. There was more. Accounting standards are to be strengthened and over-the-counter trading is to be watched more closely. Also, a system of peer reviews of regulations and standards is to come into play.

Some commentators wondered how any of this would bear fruit without countries at least discussing the issue of conflicting currency levels. It seems poignant that in the final communiqué no mention was made of the imbalance between the Chinese yuan and the US dollar.

Procrastination is not only the thief of time but maybe of economic progress too.



Sunday, 4 October 2009

Delightful Damp Squib

5th October 09 – Delightful damp squib

Like so many long drawn-out sagas, it all ended like a damp squib and much to the delight of the London and New York non-retail bankers. It is another of these “us and them” stories that eke out from the intended reforms aimed at making sure the credit crisis never reappears. The “us” of course is the UK and US financial market interests so vital to overall GDP in Britain and America and the “them” are France and Germany who want Paris and Frankfurt in the toppling zone.

The long and winding road can be summarised as the two mainland European states wanting to hang the evil bankers from the nearest and highest yardarm whilst the UK and US want a brain industry largely in tact if somewhat shackled. And it’s ironic that the place of decision was founded in 1758, named after a British prime minister and not on neutral ground. Not a good omen for modern France and Germany.

The G20 group of nations meeting in Pittsburgh allowed city traders to avoid the threatened curbs on their remuneration and instead agreed to align compensation packages to long-term risk and not impose specific caps on bonuses. The final communiqué made a firm pledge to bring bankers’ pay in line with institutional performance and ensure that loss-making and government-backed banks do not continue to pay out large sums based upon short-term results. The three bans committed to were:-
Multi-year guaranteed pay deals
The inability to claw-back bonuses if future losses ensue
Pay not aligned to risk.

If I was an erstwhile highly-paid city banker/trader, I would be shaking in my moleskin shoes and cashmere jacket. Implementation old boy, implementation.


Thursday, 1 October 2009

Another Turning Point

2nd October 09 – Another turning point

The residential mortgage backed securities market (RMBS) has been closed since the financial crisis occurred. Or rather it has been until now. There has been a greater than anticipated demand from institutional investors for a sale by Lloyds Banking Group of £4bn of mortgage backed bonds.

The issue was more than twice oversubscribed and involved bonds backed by more than 513,000 prime UK residential mortgages written by HBOS before its merger with Lloyds.

Before the credit crisis began, RMBS provided massive funding for banks as lenders swapped mortgage assets for cash together with passing the risk of borrower defaults to investors in the money market. However as part of the failure of the sub-prime market, institutions turned their back on these increasingly hard to value bits of real estate that subsequently proved to have lethal risk. Asset backed bonds are one of the last parts of the credit market to recover from the economic recession. At deemed lower risk that housing, Tesco has just sold £564.5m of bonds backed by its property leases.

In a further sign that the asset-backed securities market is reviving, Volkswagen is selling 475m’s worth of euros debt secured by car loans.

Returning to the Lloyds Banking Group deal, it seems symptomatic of confidence returning to the wholesale money market, the UK housing market and the UK economy as a whole. Furthermore, the pricing was at 170 basis points (1.7%) above LIBOR. In other words, it is not the cheap money of the past.


Pearl of the week

“The UK data continues to exceed the Bank of England’s projections on the upside.”

Report by Goldman Sachs

Wednesday, 30 September 2009

Reparation Time

1st October 09 – Reparation time

The anniversary of the collapse of Lehman Brothers seems to have cemented the surge in equity markets to a degree that company boardrooms plus advisors are hell-bent on repairing their balance sheets. A secondary influence is the ongoing squeeze of bank lending (see yesterday’s statistic on bank deposits with the B of E). The reparation is taking the form of rights issues and share placings. In one 48 hour period, no less than £3bn was gleaned from investors.

Overall, some £60bn has been raised in the UK market this year or is imminent. In order of magnitude the repairers are:-
HSBC bank
Rio Tinto mining
Lloyds Banking Group bank
Wolseley plumbers merchants
Standard Chartered bank
Liberty International property
Songbird property
Land Securities property
British Land property
3i Group investors
Barratt builders
Hammerson property
Yell media
Redrow builders

Quite a list and highlighting the sectors worse hit particularly banks and property related (11 out of the 14).

But it is an ill wind. Guess what. The banks that advised and underwrote the cash call for just one of the above, namely Barratt, including HSBC, Lloyds Banking Group and RBS will collect £27m in fees. And, according to research from Thomson Reuters, banks have billed £455m in fees from the top 20 UK deals this year. Underwriting fees on right issues (was underwriting really necessary given the heavy discount to current share prices?) have increased from 1.5% to circa 4% before being passed on to sub-underwriters at about 1.75%.

Bank competition aint wot it used to be.


Tuesday, 29 September 2009

Contrary Goldman Sachs

30th September 09 – Contrary Goldman Sachs

Hardly had the little grey cells stopped bobbing up and down on the pound-to-euro parity prophecy trampoline than up pops Goldman Sachs claiming that currency investors have exaggerated the risk faced by UK banks from the credit crunch. Goldmans went on to say that the currency players had punished sterling because a high proportion of Britain’s overseas assets are in equities. But, they claim, this makes no sense due to global stock markets recovering strongly. Quite a contrary view.

Britain will transform itself from chronic over-spender to a global surplus country as the weak pound revives its export industry: so says a new Goldman report.

Ben Broadbent, the bank’s UK economist, said that the 20% slide in sterling over the past year was “enough to push the UK’s current account into comfortable and permanent surplus.” Such a durable current account surplus has not occurred in living memory. On the back of this theory, Goldmans issued an alert advising its clients to build up sterling positions. The UK economy was in better shape than it looked, with public debt likely to peak at under 80% of GDP – lower than either Germany or France. “The UK data continues to exceed the Bank of England’s projections on the upside. We expect interest rates to rise from next spring.”

One foundation for the positive currency theory is that the UK economy is already expanding at a 2% pa rate and inflation is “sticky” (a new adjective) compared with the rest of Europe. Consequently, Goldmans expect the pound to strengthen and not weaken against the euro over the next three months. It predicts a worth of 84 pence and not 90p as now or £1 as predicted by e.g. BNP Paribas.

As regards reserves for the next rainy day, the amount of cash held by UK based banks in their reserve accounts at Threadneedle Street has reached the equivalent of 10% of UK GDP (5% US, 3% Europe and 3% Japan).

Wow, what a relief.


Monday, 28 September 2009

Rents Backtrack 20 Years

29th September 09 – Rents backtrack 20 years

Due to the perceived global recovery in economic conditions and more specifically to a dearth of new developments in the City of London, new research by Knight Frank, the UK property agent, suggests that rents in the City will rise next year. Such an event would be ahead of the date of recovery feared until only recently.

Space in the City of London is now available at the cheapest rents since 1989 and in the West End since 1996. The agents found that concerns that there would be a major increase in businesses sub-letting unwanted space have been largely unfounded. The forecast is for City rents to rise by 4% in 2010 to £44 per sq ft to follow the 21% decline this year.

Specialists seem to confirm that the rent trough has been reached. Will Beardmore-Gray, head of City leasing said “The City has seen a marked increase in activity since its low point in quarter one. There is a definite upwards trend in activity emerging – it is certainly not a fresh boom, but it is a steady return to normality. The current wave of demand is partly driven by Asia-Pacific financial firms, like Bank of China, Daiwa Securities, Bank of Tokyo, Mitsubishi, Macquarie Group and Nomura. I see the City as benefiting from its status as a hub in the system of global trade.”

Of course, there may be an element of self-fulfilment in such research and opinion. Still, a base line reaching back to 1989 cannot be a bad starting point for a revival and one thing is certainly not pie-in-the-sky. Nomura, the Japanese bank, has agreed the largest rental deal this year, moving into the new Watermark Place on the banks of the Thames.

Come on banks and the rest of you. Sock it back to them!

Sunday, 27 September 2009

The Paradox Of Thrift

28th September 09 – The paradox of thrift

“Any attempt to reduce consumption is likely to push down on output and hence household incomes. That could actually make it harder for households to increase their savings – known as the paradox of thrift.”

This statement is contained within the latest Quarterly Bulletin issued by the Bank of England. Because consumer spending accounts for two-thirds of total spending in the UK, household decisions on whether to spend or save have a major impact on the economic outlook in this, hopefully, emergence from the credit crisis.

The dichotomy is expressed by the Bank by saying that even if households saved as much as 10% of income, it would take nine years to bring wealth to the average of the last 20 years. That really is quite some paradox considering that spending led to the crisis in the first place. The two big factors quoted as most likely to lead to a reluctance to spend again at previous levels are:-
Credit conditions remaining tight
Job insecurity

The B of E’s bulletin does, however, find some helpful signs. Most financial asset prices have continued to increase over the third quarter of 2009 and conditions in bank funding markets have improved. Also, sentiment has allowed analysts to revise upwards their expectations for short-term corporate earnings. Equity prices continue to rise and as at today the FTSE is sitting at 5,133 a twelve month peak.

There is one final paradox. In the period July 24 to August 4th the B of E did not buy any corporate bonds after receiving no offers in five consecutive auctions. No sellers means no QE. No QE must mean there is enough dosh out there somewhere. Surely that is a trigger point. Even so, many people will be reluctant to spend again and not least the army of public workers.


Thursday, 24 September 2009

Pound To Euro Parity

25th September 09 – Pound to Euro parity

Four euros for a small cup of black coffee seems quite a lot of money converted back to UK pounds. But that is what it cost this week in a small town in Germany. Two years ago at a rate of 65p to the euro, £2.60 would still have been steep and last year at 79p, even more so. But now, at about 91p, it is positively expensive.

I mention this not to gain sympathy, that can be left to the family with a few children in tow that have to eat, but because currency experts are predicting that the pound will reach parity with the euro within the first three months of 2010. The factor chiefly to blame is said to be the loose monetary conditions in the UK relative to the eurozone. In turn, the main cause of that looseness is debt, as commented upon yesterday.

Currency experts at BNP Paribas said “Sterling is likely to be the underperformer among the majors, despite a favourable global financial market environment, as the UK domestic picture is set to deteriorate with the fiscal/monetary mix in particular working against sterling.”

The big issue is that the eurozone is a major source of imports to the UK and a weaker pound makes such goods (many often just passing through) more expensive in pound terms and thus not helping when inflation times return. But, by the same token, the eurozone is the largest export market for UK businesses. Exported goods become cheaper to the buyer if invoiced in sterling and so on balance UK Ltd ought to come out on top (much to the annoyance of our German friends).

The cynical will say that this is all very well but unfortunately Britain’s export industry is shot to ribbons. To them I would reply that the first posh shop window we looked at in Rottweil help shoes. The shop was full of high quality shoes. Shoes made by Clarke of UK fame, the biggest shoe manufacturer in the world.

The moral to this story is, sell like there is no tomorrow to Europe, but tomorrow – do not go there.

Pearl of the week

“The European Union faces a quasi-existential crisis”

Mario Monti

Wednesday, 23 September 2009

Between A Rock And A Hard Place

24th September 09 – Between a rock and a hard place

The optimism of recent times could not last, at least not in terms of the balance sheet of UK Ltd. The total tax take in the five months of this fiscal year to the end of August 09 was 11.4% down on the equivalent period last year (the rock). Government spend on social benefits was 9.5% higher (the hard place). What are the consequences of this two-way stretch? In a word: debt.

The UK’s government borrowing is two and a half times higher that at the same point last year due to a record £16.1bn borrowed in the month of August 09. For perspective, this sum represented an increase of 63% on August 08 and it was the largest August deficit since records began in 1993. The UK has borrowed £65.3bn since the start of the financial year in April 09 compared with £26.1bn in the comparator. How would you feel if your personal borrowings mirrored these percentages? Try to feel it for the nation, your children will.

John Hawsworth, head of macro economics at PricewaterhouseCoopers, said “The figures confirm the dire state of the public finances. It seems likely budget deficits will overshoot Treasury forecasts not only in 2009/10 but for some years to come, resulting in pressure to tighten fiscal policy by more in the medium term than the Treasury’s Budget plans suggested.” He estimated that Government borrowing could reach as much as £200bn in the full fiscal year. Jonathan Loynes at Capital Economics went further by thinking that there would be an overshoot in the Treasury estimate of £50bn to reach a staggering sum of £225bn.

That the Bank of England is on the other end of this borrowing by printing cash to gobble up the gild-edged securities issued to effect the borrowing is hard to fathom since broad money supply in August 09 grew by just 0.1%.

A rock, a hard place and a dollop of QE. Quite a witch’s brew.

Tuesday, 22 September 2009

Barclays Are At It Again

23rd September 09 – Barclays are at it again

My favourite maverick bank, that can only be Barclays (please read my earlier entries in this diary or think back to the TV documentary on the collapse of Lehman Brothers in which the boss of Barclays, Bob Diamond – an American – played quite a starring role) have pulled another flanker.

Britain’s second-largest bank has “sold” £7.5bn of its riskiest assets to a new company called Protium (the most common isotope of hydrogen) Finance. The new company is registered in the Cayman Islands and will be run by two former Barclays investment bankers and 43 colleagues, all of whom have resigned from Barclays Capital on completion of the deal and will charge Barclays $40m annual management fee, including office costs. If this all sounds somewhat surreal, then that is probably because it is.

The detail of how Barclays pulled off this deal are complicated but very interesting and may provide a blueprint for similar transactions in the future and not necessarily linked to Barclays toxic assets. Barclays has provided Protium with a 10-year, $12.6bn loan to buy the assets. The sale allows the bank to “derecognise the assets” by shielding it from any further falls in their “mark-to-market” value. Ian Gordon of Exane BNP Paribas said that the deal will provide “a boost to its capital strength by punting the issue into the long grass.”

The loan from Barclays to Protium is unusual. It will earn interest at 2.75% above the US inter-bank rate. This interest (which could accumulate to $3.9bn over the 10 year life) will be paid after investor returns. These investors, as yet unknown, are injecting $450m to earn 7% a year.

So far as I can see, the transaction will remove volatility from Barclays’ balance sheet, but the bank’s regulatory capital will not be changed until the loan is repaid on a gradual basis.

All seems like a return to the old days. Have the bad assets gone away?

Monday, 21 September 2009

Selecting Reverse Gear, US Style

22nd September 09 – Selecting reverse gear, US style

The motoring theme has tended to dominate this diary in recent times (and the Canadian Magna outfit with its Russian supporters has finally won the Opel/Vauxhall stakes) but this reverse gear has nothing to do with driving. Rather it is about money supply.

One of the biggest crutches applied to the US financial market following the collapse of Lehman Brothers a year ago was a $2,500bn guarantee for the money market mutual fund industry. This guarantee is to be allowed to expire on schedule this month. In addition, there is to be a review by the Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation that is likely to lead to funding guarantees for banks either to end completely or be restricted to emergency cases.

Tim Geithner, the US Treasury secretary said “As we enter this new phase we must begin winding down some of the extraordinary support we put in place for the financial system. We must continue reinforcing recovery until it is self-sustaining and led by private demand.”

Commentators think that whilst the timing of the strategic shift towards pulling back support is symbolic, it is a fact that US banks have repaid more than $70bn of the emergency bail-out funds. It is estimated that a further $50bn will be repaid over the next 12 to 18 months. The size of the Federal Reserve emergency fund loan programmes has diminished greatly with commercial paper funding facilities down 87% from the peak and the cash auction scheme down 57%.

Only time will tell if these first reversals of the emergency moves last year will prove to be timed correctly or be premature. Certainly, initiatives to mitigate home foreclosures and increase available credit to small businesses is continuing. Professor Tim Congdon referring to bank loans in the US falling at 14% in the quarter to August 09 said “The rapid destruction of money balances is madness.”

Money Magic

Money magic

The illusion starts with my daughter-in-law explaining how she got £300 worth of wine for “free”.

Julia and I do not normally shop at Tesco, primarily since if time is worth spent physically shopping as distinct from on-line, then one might as well spend plenty of money. Therefore we go to Waitrose.

Nevertheless, having bought a new TV set on-line from Tesco due to the offer of a free installation of Sky (a deal pointed out to me by my son), we received “points” that themselves turned into vouchers with a value. We also got a little colourful booklet entitled “How to double up your vouchers on all this and more”. Page 2 of the booklet explained a 4-stage process:-
Choose the department you want to spend your rewards tokens in
Decide where you want to use your tokens (in-store, wine by the case, Tesco direct or grocery delivery charge)
Decide how many Clubcard vouchers you want to exchange
Take your Clubcard vouchers to the Clubcard desk at your local store, where a customer service assistant will exchange them for double up rewards tokens.

“Make sure you don’t go straight to the checkout as your vouchers cannot be doubled up there.”

Seems simple enough if unduly complicated. The customer service assistant has a face glowing with rouge and bonhomie and explains that my £10 voucher can be doubled up – no problem there. My £5 voucher can be doubled up – no problem there. But, my £4 voucher cannot be because it is less than £5. Therefore she can turn £15 into £30’s worth of rewards tokens and I can use the £4 just as a straight voucher discount, understand? Yes I think I have it and please proceed.

Clutching my 3 times £10 rewards tokens tightly in a sweaty hand (still thinking about what the customer service assistant will be doing after her shift ends) and putting the £4 voucher in a safe pocket, I proceed post haste to the wine section. What my daughter-in-law had explained is really true. There are shelves of wine at half price (that is how £300 worth was obtained with just £75 in vouchers – get it?). However, my eye is caught by a 3 bottles for £10 offer. Seems too good to miss and so I choose two separate white wines and grab 3 of each.

To insure against the 3 for £10 stuff not being up to quality standard, I then spot a marvellous New Zealand Marlborough that will have previously been priced “at some Tesco stores” at £9.99. It is now half-price at £4.99 (we can forgive the odd half-pence error). I go for 2 bottles thinking that I have more or less spent the £30 rewards tokens (6 bottles from 3 for £10 and 2 bottles at a fiver each).

About to leave the wine counter, I suddenly remember the £4 voucher. Nearly made a mistake. I grab thankfully a lovely Isla Negra Chilean Chardonnay at £3.99, half price. That should just about do it. On the way to the checkout I collect 4 large potatoes for tonight’s steak dinner and a large jar of Nescafe coffee priced at £3.

I enquire of the checkout assistant if she wants the rewards vouchers and the token before of after the checkout routine (must not make a mistake at this stage as I recall the threat note below the 4 options outlined in the booklet). She confirms “at the end” and wants my Tesco clubcard to award more points for this purchase basket. Amazing really.

The net cost to me, and I have studied the till roll now for over half an hour and am still no wiser on how it happened, is £2.08. What I forgot to mention was that the jar of coffee is for our local village hall of which I am chairman. The £3 mentioned on the till roll will be reimbursed to me by the treasurer.

In conclusion, I bought from our local Tesco 9 bottles of good wine, 4 large potatoes and a large jar of coffee for -92p. Can anyone beat that? First thing Monday morning I intend to dump my Tesco shares on the basis that the purchase of a TV was a one-off, my wife will still shop at Waitrose and the world has gone completely and utterly mad.

Jgs -20 September 2009

Banking’s Bigger Buffers

21st September 09 – Banking’s bigger buffers

For the second time, this diary can capture the deliberations of a bi-annual meeting of the finance ministers of the G20 group of nations. The main outcome of the decisions taken this time around is that banks will have to maintain bigger buffers under the new framework now agreed, once the financial crisis has passed.

Unlike the US and UK’s banking capital provisions, those of European mainland banks have buffers made up of so called “hybrid” securities that are more like debt than equity. Analysts believe that some European banks have met as much as half of existing regulatory requirements on capital buffers this way. Bernd Brabander, MD for economic affairs at the Association of German Banks said that proposals to cap the overall level of debt that a bank could hold in relation to its size, could put European banks at a competitive disadvantage.

Another principle established at the latest meeting of the G20 was that complex financial institutions should develop “living wills” to plan for their unwinding. Thirdly, banks will have to retain some portion of the loans they repackage and sell as asset-backed securities.

Bernd Brabander also said of the new proposals “The bit about leverage ratios really makes me a bit nervous.” Having just passed the anniversary of the collapse of Lehman Brothers, that must be the jaw-dropping mollification of the decade.

Thursday, 17 September 2009

Motoring From US via Sweden to China.

18th September 09 – Motoring from US via Sweden to China

This is a credit crunch tale that started way back, is still motoring and may yet take an unexpected turn. It is anchored on the data that Chinese car sales surged 90% in August 09 year-on-year. For the whole of 2009, sales of vehicles in China could reach 12 million and if so, it will attain the top spot as the world’s biggest auto market, taking the crown from the US.

This diary has reported earlier about the impending fate of the quality, design-led Saab marquee on the back of the demise of the US’s General Motors who drew the brand away from Sweden some years ago. Now it could return home. A Swedish “supercar” maker called Koenigsegg is on the cusp of buying Saab via a consortium. The consortium includes Beijing Automotive Industry Holdings. And this is where the circle forms.

GM, newly emerged form Chapter 11 bankruptcy, is doing very well out of the Chinese vehicle sale boom using its joint ventures where sales are up 40% this year. So, GM ditches one to benefit with another. But, that is not the end of the Swedish tale.

Ford owns Volvo, the second and more safety conscious if less designer Swedish brand. Where is Volvo being driven? You guessed it, China of course. Geely Automobile Holdings is apparently working with Chinese state investment companies on a bid for the whole of Volvo. Volvo manufactures in both Sweden and Belgium but the US is its biggest market.

The draw back of big luxury cars in the US is not a problem for the emerging middle-class of China. The real evidence for this is Buick, retained by GM but now sold to those affluent Chinese gentlemen.

US to China via Sweden seems an improbable outcome of the credit crisis, but it could happen.


Pearl of the week

“Customers want a choice, they do not all want small cars – and neither do they all want big cars.”

Ian Robertson, BMW’s head of sales

GM Europe Still Not Sorted

17th September 09 – GM Europe still not sorted

It seems ages since we wrote about the Canadian/Russian solution to how General Motors would off-load its European business featuring the marques of Opel and Vauxhall. But, having successfully passed through Chapter 11 bankruptcy in it home US territory, GM has not managed to pull the deal off.

Talks between GM (chief negotiator is John Smith) and the German government have stalled notwithstanding the Germans putting up 1.5bn euros as security. From a UK perspective, this leaves the 5,000 Vauxhall workers still in no-man’s land. The spoiling factor has been a rival bid from RHJ International, the Belgium investors. This bid has been finally rejected by the German government since it prefers the original deal with Magna of Canada and its Russian banking investor.

Intertwined with the commercial case for resolving the future ownership aspect of GM Europe is a political one. Germany goes to the polls in late September and obviously the question of jobs is key especially during these hard times for employment. The original deal was likely to save most jobs. On the other hand, the Americans are worried about the risk of technology transfer and future competition from Russian interests. It is no coincidence that the re-born Chrysler business is currently aiming a small car at mainland Europe.

GM would appear to have three alternatives with its European business:-
Agree a compromise with Magna (the Canadians)
Refinance Opel and Vauxhall
Restructure the business through some form of insolvency.

The back rooms are likely to be buzzing at the Frankfurt Motor Show which starts today. If the German government decides to up-front the whole finance for Magna, the US and UK administrations are likely to have a headache whether tea or German beer is consumed in those back rooms.

Tuesday, 15 September 2009

Out In The Cold – Still.

16th September 09 – Out in the cold – still

Iceland with its funny banking system and outrageously entrepreneurial businessmen was the first economy to slide down the credit crisis pan. It was not just latitude that made that remote island so cold, and it remains out in the cold.

Data just released shows that Iceland’s GDP shrank by 6.5% in the quarter to June 09 compared to a year ago and, indeed, fell by 2% in the quarter alone. The country’s central bank has forecast that the economy will shrink by 9% this calendar year and as contributory factors, household spending will be down 19.7% and fixed investment will collapse by 48.4%. These are big, big numbers for any sovereign state.

Icelandic interest rates still hover around the 12% mark and controls still stop capital from flowing outwards. The IMF had to bail out the country with a $5.1bn aid package and three of its leading banks, Glitnir, Landsbanki and Kaupthing all failed.

Many of us can remember the somewhat surreal “cod war” when little Iceland actually went onto the offensive against the UK in an attempt to expand the territory of its greatest fishy asset. Now the Icelanders, who previously enjoyed an extremely high standard or living, have something even more fishy on their hands. There are 20 “suspicions of criminal activity” cases in process relating to the banking system. A leaked list of recipients of huge loans has not helped the confidence of Iceland, not least since the security taken is said to be dodgy at best or non-existent at worst.

In the early days of the credit crisis, Iceland complained about the use against them by the UK of legislation drafted originally to prevent terrorism. Assets were “frozen” and deposits placed with Icelandic banks had to be redeemed by the UK taxpayer. Paying this money back to the UK is a condition of the IMF support scheme for Iceland.

The only question in doubt now concerning how the UK reacted initially, is the definition of terrorism.